Climate Risk, Stress testing Joshua Nowak Climate Risk, Stress testing Joshua Nowak

Stress Testing the Future: A Small- and Medium-sized Banks' Guide to Climate Scenario Analysis

Climate change presents profound challenges for banks, affecting a range of prudential risks through both physical and transition channels. Regulators now expect firms to embed climate-related financial risks (CRFR) as part of their core risk management processes. The Prudential Regulation Authority’s (PRA) Supervisory Statement 5/25 marks a clear step forward: climate scenario analysis (CSA) is no longer simply encouraged. It must inform strategy, risk appetite, capital and liquidity planning, and even reverse stress testing.

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Evolving Climate Risk Expectations for UK Banks (SS5/25 via PS25/25)

On 3 December 2025, the PRA published its final Policy Statement PS25/25 on climate-related financial risks. The final expectations now sit in Supervisory Statement SS5/25 ‘Enhancing banks’ and insurers’ approaches to managing climate-related risks’, which immediately replaces the old SS3/19. The changes enhance requirements in areas such as governance, risk management, scenario analysis, data, and disclosure.

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